Venom at the NY Times Book Review

You must read a piece entitled “The Problem with Memoirs” in the January 30, 2011 New York Times Book Review. Neil Genzlinger, a Times staff editor, turns gunslinger and assassinates three of the four memoirs he reviews. The first book is skewered with the comment that with the exception of one anecdote involving Amy Carter, “The rest belongs on a blog.” [Obviously, he has never read my blog.]

The second book is pilloried with passages such as this one, “…the reader will need a hug after choking down this orgy of self-congratulation and self-pity.” And the author is chastised as “immature.” The gunslinger calls the third memoir an “…appalling example of coattail grabbing.”

Mean-spirited to say the least, but I feel compelled to take gunslinger to task for what I would say is a major mixing of metaphors at the end of his fourth paragraph. It reads as follows: “Three of the four did not need to be written, a ratio that probably applies to all memoirs published over the last two decades. Sorry to be so harsh, but this flood just has to be stopped. We don’t have that many trees left.”

Yikes!

My First Book

The New York Times Hardcover Nonfiction Best Seller List has the following two books at numbers 11 and 12.



They have been on the list for 11 and 38 weeks respectively.

I am writing a book and have been so far somewhat blocked at the title stage. But as I scanned the Times, the lights came on. My book will be called “______ ____ ____________.”

Please look for it soon on Amazon and Kindle.

Now that I am unblocked, I can share an excerpt with you.

Here is the start of Chapter I:

___ ______ the ___ ________? “____________ to a ___ _ ______,” ___ ____ an ________ ___ _ ____. _________ ____ ___ for ___________ _____; ______ __ ___’_ a ______ ____...

Voodoo Weather Forecast

The folks over at Accuweather.com have outdone themselves this time. How? Well, on one page of their website, they are predicting a major storm for February 2 with the headline “Groundhog Day Storm May Affect More than 100 Million People.” As you can see from the map, heavy snow is predicted for the entire Northeast, including New York City.



Just for fun I then clicked on the Accuweather.com extended forecast for New York City and guess what? The forecast is “Mostly cloudy, snow possible.”



Now if you had plans to fly to Florida from New York on February 2 at 8:00 a.m. as I do, what would you do?

As I said in my previous blog on weathermen, I’d like to be reincarnated as one. No accountability, no penalty for errors, no one seems to care if you are right or wrong. Some science, meteorology, eh?

I Want To Be Reincarnated as a Weatherman

As I sat here yesterday morning, two inches of snow were on the ground and the snow was showing no sign of letting up. The forecast was “Snow showers with no accumulation.” Once again, the forecast was wrong.

Just how accurate are weather forecasts? A New York Times article described in detail a study that was done in Missouri. It showed that television meteorologists were remarkably bad at predicting the weather and the further out the forecast went, the worse they did.

A website called “Forecast Advisor” tracks the accuracy of forecasts for any area of the country. The first screen shot shows three different forecasts for yesterday. The first was posted yesterday and the other two are revisions. None was correct as it is snowing heavily when the site was accessed. The second screen shot lists cumulative accuracy statistics for the New York City area.

At first glance, the accuracy for last year looks pretty good. But here’s an interesting thought. According to the New York Times article if you predicted it would not rain every day, you were right 86% of the time.

The website Weather Report Card gave “D” grades to all five major weather services that it follows regarding both temperature and precipitation forecasts for Monday, January 24, 2011.

Now contrast this with my current profession, general surgery. How would you feel about me if I told you I made the correct diagnosis of appendicitis 76% of the time last month? Or say I told you that you needed hernia surgery but at surgery I only found a hernia 86% of the time? I think I would very soon be out of business.

Not so the weathermen. It seems that they are immune to criticism or accountability. In fact, the Times report stated, “When station managers were asked about this [accountability], one said, ‘There’s not an evaluation of accuracy in hiring meteorologists. Presentation takes precedence over accuracy.’”

This is why I’d like to be reincarnated as a weatherman. You can be wrong as often as you like. And if you are, no one cares. In addition, you get to engage in witty banter with the news anchors and the sports guy. My really special reincarnation wish would be to come back as the guy who stands on the beach during a hurricane and tells you it’s raining hard as his hat blows away and billboards fly past. By the way, what do those guys do when there are no hurricanes? I want that job too.

Medicare Dialogue. Who’s on First?

I enrolled in Medicare and obtained a card last month. Today I received a letter from Medicare asking me to complete an Initial Enrollment Questionnaire (IEQ). A four-sided paper form was included. The letter stated that the form could be completed on-line which was preferred. I went to the website and registered. I could not find the area on the website that was said to be where the form was located. Here is the transcript of my chat with Medicare’s on-line chat support. Some of you may be old enough to remember the old Abbott and Costello routine entitled, “Who’s on First?”

Agent:
Hi, my name is Agent Doe. Do not disclose any personal data such as your Health Insurance Claim Number and/or your password to me. To start, may I have your zip code and state of residence please?
Skeptical:
00000 USA
Agent:
Thank you, Mr. Scalpel. How may I help you today?
Skeptical:
I am trying to locate the IEQ on line
Agent:
When does your Medicare go into effect, sir?
Skeptical:
Already in effect
Agent:
When did it go into effect, sir?
Skeptical:
Early December of 2010.
Agent:
Did both Part A and Part B go into effect December 1, 2010?
Skeptical:
I only enrolled in Part A.
Agent:
The IEQ form will be available to you 90 days before and 180 days after your Medicare entitlement. This only applies if you are turning age 65 and are enrolled in Medicare Part B.
Skeptical:
I received the paper IEQ in the mail today.
Agent:
Unfortunately, the form is not available for you to complete online. You will need to complete the Initial Enrollment Questionnaire manually and mail it in via Standard U.S. Mail.
Skeptical:
The letter says go to MyMedicare.gov and sign in. Then go to "My publications and tools," which I cannot find. Why would they tell me to do that if it's not available on line?
Agent:
I apologize about the inconvenience, sir. If you need a paper copy of the form, I have to refer you to the Medicare Coordination of Benefits Contractor. Please call them at 1-800-999-1118. Their hours of operation are Monday - Friday from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. ET, except holidays.
Skeptical:
I have the paper copy.
Agent:
The letter that is sent is a standardized letter that is sent to all beneficiaries that are becoming eligible for Medicare. However, it only applies to beneficiaries who are turning age 65 and are enrolled in Medicare Part B.
Skeptical:
If I'm not enrolled in Part B, then why bother to even send in the paper form?
Agent:
The letter that was sent to you is sent to all newly eligible beneficiaries regardless if you have Part A only, Part B only or both A and B. I apologize about the inconvenience, Mr. Scalpel.
Skeptical:
OK, thanks.

Mall Fall Fallout

Yesterday a video of a woman who fell into a mall fountain while texting went viral. It was taken by security personnel whose comments can be heard since they were recording from a TV screen with a phone camera.

The woman, clearly unhurt, gets right up, grabs her phone from the water and walks away. The clip is funny and it sends a message that texting while walking can be dangerous. So let’s move on to today’s viral video.

Not so fast. Cue “The Lawyer.”

In a story in today’s Reading Eagle newspaper, the woman, who works at a store in the mall, outed herself and has hired the inevitable attorney. They are claiming that instead of laughing at her, mall security should have checked to see if she was all right. The lawyer, James M. Polyak, “…plans to conduct an investigation into what happened.” The article goes on to quote Polyak, who in his best legalese said "We are troubled by the fact that anyone at the Berkshire Mall responsible for releasing this video would find humor in an employee injured on the premises. We intend to hold the appropriate persons responsible.”

I would like to help. Here is a list of potential targets for the impending lawsuits:

1. The security personnel who did not come to her aid with towels.
2. The owners of the mall who did not screen the security guards properly and who did not post signs stating that texting while walking could be dangerous.
3. The architect who negligently placed fountain where people might walk.
4. The construction company who did not place a proper barricade around the fountain.
5. The city of Reading and Berks County for not exercising due diligence when reviewing the plans for the mall.
6. The company that supplied the construction materials.
7. The State of Pennsylvania for not foreseeing this event and enacting laws governing fountains in malls.
8. The water company for supplying water to a hazardous fountain.
9. The cellular telephone company for not advising the victim that texting while walking could be dangerous.
10. Matti Makkonen, a Finnish guy, who might have invented texting and Friedhelm Hillebrand, a German guy, who also might have invented texting.
11. The estate of Alexander Graham Bell, inventor of the telephone.
12. The victim’s friend from church who was negligently engaging the victim in a text conversation while the victim was walking.
13. The federal government because it has “deep pockets.”
14. The United Nations.

Update:
This just in. According to another story in the Reading Eagle, the Mall Fall Lady has an interesting record including unauthorized use of a co-workers credit card, theft and hit-and-run driving. You cannot make this stuff up.

Private Rooms and Infection Control

Researchers at McGill University in Montreal published a study in Archives of Internal Medicine showing a 50% reduction in ICU infections in patients placed in private rooms compared to those in multiple-bedded rooms. Many media outlets [Science Daily, Eurekalert, Reuters] distributed the story. CBC ran it but somewhat conflated the ICU bed part with general hospital beds. Also, some prominent tweeters linked to #ptsafety failed to highlight that the study involved only ICU patients. [See photo.]
I am concerned that this might encourage consumers to ask for private rooms whenever they are hospitalized. In an ideal world, I certainly agree that every patient should have his own room, not only to reduce infection risk, but for privacy and comfort.
There are two major obstacles preventing us all from having private rooms. One, insurance generally will not pay for it. Two, most hospitals have a very limited number of private rooms. I spoke with Sara Beasley, of the American Hospital Association’s Resource Center. She told me that the AHA has no data on the number of private vs. semi-private rooms in US hospitals because that information is not currently being collected by any organization or agency she is aware of. She did point out that guidelines for new hospital construction do call for all private rooms. Most ICUs in the US have all private beds. But based on my own experience, I estimate that less than 10-15% of US hospital medical-surgical beds are private.

Until all beds are private, we will have to continue our efforts to practice good infection control and limit the over-utilization of antibiotics which is rampant in the country.