Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Is Medical School Tuition Debt Deterring Prospective Students?

Yesterday I received a call from the son of some old friends. This 30-year-old man has been an elementary schoolteacher for the past few years and recently decided that he would like to go to medical school and eventually become a surgeon. He wanted to know what I thought of the idea.

Suppressing the urge to tell him not to even consider becoming a doctor, I tried to help him think it through. He is looking at about 10 years of hard work including taking a year of post-graduate pre-med science courses, four years of medical school and five years of surgical residency training before his dream becomes reality. Here are the issues.

He is still paying off his college tuition loans. He will have to pay tuition for his post-grad year. Medical school tuition alone will cost at least $40,000 per year [private] or $20,000/$40,000 per year [public, resident/non-resident]. Fees, health insurance, books, housing, food etc are not included. According to the AMA, the average debt facing graduating medical students in 2009 was $156,000. Here is a Wall Street Journal story about the worst case scenario for medical school tuition debt, a whopping $550,000 tab run up by a family practitioner.

He will not be able to earn much money during his five years of residency training. The average salary for a surgical resident is about $56,000 per year, which will force him to defer paying the principal on his loans while the interest keeps on accruing. By the time my young friend is ready to start his residency [2015], I fully expect the current allowable work hours to be significantly lower than the current 80 hours per week. This may lead to a lengthening of the duration of surgical training to six or seven years.

At best he will be 40 years old when he is ready to start practice. No doubt Medicare reimbursement for physicians will be reduced as this was barely averted for 2011 by a last-minute compromise band-aid bill passed by Congress. The insurance companies will surely follow with decreases of their own.

God only knows what will happen to malpractice insurance premiums, the cost of running an office and other practice expenses. One thing for sure is that decreases are unlikely. “Private practice” may not even exist by 2020. Every doctor may be salaried as regulated by the government.

So do you want to invest ten years of your life to become the 21st century’s version of an indentured servant who runs up a debt so big that it can never be repaid for the privilege of working 60-80 hours per week for the rest of your life? If that sounds like a good deal to you, then go for it.

5 comments:

Gray said...

Yes, but if he becomes an anesthesiologist ("rock star" in Latin), he will be the envy of everyone. For, as you know, the world is divided into anesthesiologists and people who wish they were anesthesiologists.

Michael Kirsch, M.D. said...

I think there are many forces beyond tuition cost that are deterring students from choosing medicine. There's a reason that many physicians are not encouraging our kids to pursue medicine, in contrast to our predecessors.

J. Anderson said...

Honestly, I doubt potential debt is deterring that many students. When you look at the amount of student loan debt across the board (not just the medical industry) - it becomes hard to fathom that many students are being deterred by future payments. It's more the ability to get proper financing that scares many potential doctors off.

J. Anderson
Medical School Tuition Coordinator

Anonymous said...

You have mentioned all the downsides but not any upside. Maybe he is one of a minuscule fraction of people that would enjoy every single moment of life as a surgeon.

Believe me, I am not in that fraction. But don't you need to mention the slight possibility he doesn't care one bit about debt and has a life philosophy like Mother Teresa?

Steve Jobs has cancer and more money than he will ever need, yet he made the effort to introduce iPad 2. That is how much he cares about Apple. That is what he would WANT to do if he was free from obligations.

Basically, I think the whole thing would have been a lot better if you included the caveat "unless you are a very exceptional individual".

I'm fully in agreement with your main point by the way. I could not imagine going through that training for something I would get not nearly enough joy out of.

Skeptical Scalpel said...

@Anonymous. I appreciate you thoughtful comments. I know the young man and he is concerned about the debt. Despite my dire warnings, he has been accepted to an excellent post-grad pre-med program and is going to give it a go.

Just one thing. It is possible that Steve Jobs showed up to introduce the iPad2 to help protect his vast holdings in Apple.

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