2018 Residency Match Update

The National Resident Matching Program Advance Data Tables for the 2018 Main Residency Match again show an increase in the number of first-year positions offered, going from 28,849 in 2017 to 30,232 this year.

Of the 18,818 seniors graduating from US allopathic medical schools, 17,740 (94.3%) matched, 1078 (5.7%) did not match, and 474 withdrew or did not submit a rank list. The 5.7% who went unmatched was identical to last year’s figure.

The 1511 graduates of US allopathic medical schools from previous years did not fare as well with 43.8% matching and 56.2% going unmatched—slightly worse than the 2017 percentages.

Brief summary of 2017 residency match data

Here are some snippets from the NRMP Advance Data Tables for the 2017 Main Residency Match.

The number of PGY-1 positions offered was the highest total ever. US allopathic medical school seniors in the match numbered 18,539, which is also a new high. Only 5.7% of US seniors failed to match. That was a slightly lower percentage compared to 2016 and 2015.

The numbers were not as good for previous graduates of US allopathic medical schools with only 46% of 1472 applicants matching. Osteopathic graduates fared better with 81.7% of 3590 applicants matching.

I have blogged about the prospects for international medical school graduates. Of the 5069 US citizen graduates of international medical schools, 54.8% matched—a rate consistent with the totals for the last four years.

Can a US IMG with a marginal USMLE Step 1 score still match in surgery?

A US IMG with a USMLE Step 1 score between 200 and 210 wrote me with several questions.

Disclaimer: This is my opinion which may not be shared by the majority of surgical program directors. The questions are italicized.

Is there a way to find programs that don't have Step 1 cut offs? No.

Should I email them my 230 on the USMLE practice test? That would be of no use.

Should I explain my situation or will that seem like a sob story? I've had bad luck but just a string of it and I feel like it would sound like I was making too many excuses. As I read your story, it did sound like too many excuses. The problem for you is that there are numerous other candidates out there who don’t have these issues and have better scores.

Should I strategically book rotations during interview season and hope they decide they want me (does that happen and do you have any tips on this)? The value of so-called “audition electives” is controversial. I never put much stock in them, but I think many program directors do. If you decide to do some audition electives, you should focus on smaller community hospital programs. Many programs list where their residents went to medical school on their websites. You should pick places that have taken US IMGs recently.

Shortage of doctors in the future? Maybe

Shortage of residency positions for international medical school graduates in the future? Yes.

Google “shortage of doctors” and you’ll find that almost everyone believes what the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) says—that we will need 90,000 to 130,000 more doctors by the year 2025.

There are a few naysayers such as Gail Wilensky, a health economist and co-chair of the Institute of Medicine panel that found no evidence to support those estimates and Princeton health economist Uwe Reinhardt, who says it’s in the best interests of the AAMC to predict a shortage.

A 2012 survey found that one-third of US physicians planned to retire by 2022. According to a study by the Kaiser Family Foundation, there are just over 900,000 active physicians in the US, meaning that if the survey is correct, about 300,000 doctors will have stopped practicing by 2022.

The AAMC says that about 18,000 medical students graduated from US schools in 2015. Will that be enough to replace those who say they are quitting? The number of residency positions available for med school graduates was 27,860 in the 2016 match.

If you multiply 27,860 residency slots x 10 years (between the years 2012 and 2022) you get 278,600, which approaches the projected number of 300,000 retirees lost.

No matter which side of the debate is correct, international medical graduates (IMGs) will be adversely affected. Here is why.